Global Changes That Are Influencing Everyday Decisions
Global change refers to a series of changes occurring throughout the Earth system and its life-supporting environment under the influence of biological processes, particularly human activities. The scientific goals of global change research are to describe and understand the physical, chemical, and biological processes controlling key interactions within the Earth system; to describe and understand the unique environments that support life; and to describe and understand significant global changes occurring within the Earth system due to human activities.
Rise of Unilateralism and Protectionism
The rise of unilateralism and protectionism has increased uncertainty in global trade policy. Some developed countries are violating basic economic laws and market principles by unilaterally imposing high tariffs, forcibly promoting the return of manufacturing, and considering a series of unilateral measures in areas such as currency, financing, and exchange rates. These practices hinder the optimal allocation of global resources, affect the resilience and stability of global industrial and supply chains, and trigger market turmoil and international concern. Several indices measuring global trade policy uncertainty have risen rapidly to multi-decade highs and are expected to remain at high levels.
Severe Challenges to the International Order and Rules
The existing international system and rules have suffered severe impacts. The international system centered on the United Nations, the international order based on international law, and the basic norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, established after World War II, face severe challenges. First, in the political and security sphere, violations of the purposes and principles of the UN Charter are on the rise, affecting the stability of the international system. International humanitarian law is being violated, civilians and infrastructure are being attacked, and food and water are even being used as weapons (UN, 2025). Second, in global governance, the United States' withdrawal from important international agreements and institutions such as the Paris Agreement, the World Health Organization, the UN Human Rights Council, and UNESCO, its passive attitude towards or even rejection of the 2030 Agenda, and its absence from important multilateral forums such as G20 meetings and the Fourth UN Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4) have impacted the global governance system and violated the principles of multilateralism. Third, in terms of development resources, most developed countries have failed to fulfill their commitment to allocate 0.7% of their gross national income to official development assistance (ODA), and some countries have significantly reduced their foreign aid budgets; ODA is expected to continue to decline in the coming years. Foreign direct investment inflows to developing countries also fell to their lowest level since 2005 (World Bank, 2025b).
Local Conflicts Delayed
Local conflicts and instability are frequent. 2024 saw the highest number of armed conflicts globally in nearly 80 years, with 61 conflicts occurring in 36 countries (PRIO, 2024). Some international hotspots remain unresolved, and new hotspots continue to emerge, with some conflicts even involving the nuclear field. The future trajectory of some conflicts is unpredictable, with risks of proliferation and escalation.
Frequent Local Conflicts Exacerbate Multiple Risks and Challenges. Frequent local conflicts impact global trade, investment, and supply chains, raising economic operating costs, affecting corporate investment intentions and the global economic outlook, exacerbating security risks in key transportation routes, and increasing the instability of global food and energy supply chains. In 2024, conflicts resulted in over 120 million people being forcibly displaced globally, marking the 12th consecutive year of increase (UNHCR, 2024).
Global Warming Accelerates
The pace of climate change is accelerating. Concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the global atmosphere have reached their highest levels in the past 800,000 years (WMO, 2025), indicating a significantly accelerated pace of global warming and a more severe climate change situation. The challenges of slow global climate action, energy policy regression in some developed countries, and increased green trade barriers are intertwined, further exacerbating existing climate change risks. If the current situation continues, global temperatures could rise by 2.6°C–3.1°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the 21st century (UNEP, 2024).
Accelerated climate change could have incalculable consequences. Compared to 2010–2014, the average annual global economic losses from extreme weather events increased by 23% from 2019–2023, reaching US$227 billion (Romanello et al., 2024). In 2024, extreme weather events led to severe food insecurity for more than 96 million people in 18 countries (FAO, 2025). It is projected that by 2050, global economic losses due to climate change will increase to $1.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion annually (WEF, 2023).
Artificial Intelligence: Empowering Development and Facing Challenges
While artificial intelligence (AI) technology is empowering development and profoundly changing the global economy, society, and environment, it may also bring a series of security risks and governance challenges. First, it may pose public safety risks. AI technology is susceptible to misuse; deepfakes, privacy violations, and manipulation of public opinion could endanger public safety and trigger a crisis of trust. Second, it may pose military security risks. AI may cause profound changes in the form of warfare, weaken the nuclear deterrent capabilities of nuclear-weapon states, and disrupt the existing strategic balance of power. Furthermore, autonomous weapons using AI technology could have serious consequences if they go out of control. Third, there is a risk of technological runaway. At the Second Global AI Security Summit in May 2024, several of the world's leading AI experts stated that the possibility of developing powerful general-purpose AI systems that surpass human performance in many key areas within the next decade must be seriously considered, as humanity has currently failed to take effective measures to protect itself from the threats posed by the application of AI technology. Fourth, it may have a certain impact on the job market. While the long-term impact of artificial intelligence on the job market remains uncertain, its short-term shocks are already evident.
The increasing instability and uncertainty facing global development has deep-seated causes. Due to differences in resource endowments, stages of development, and development models, countries benefit differently in various areas of international trade and economics. Some developed countries unilaterally attribute their own problems to economic globalization, viewing international relations through a zero-sum or even negative-sum game mentality, and adopting unilateralism and trade protectionism. This can lead to sluggish trade and investment growth and slower productivity increases (World Bank, 2025c), and also undermine global cooperation in addressing common challenges and providing public goods, exacerbating the instability and uncertainty of global development.
