Major Global Developments Shaping Early 2026
According to a UN report, the global economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2026, a slower pace and greater divergence in growth. The UN's "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026" report projects global economic growth at 2.7%, lower than the 2.8% in 2025. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) forecast global economic growth of 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively. Despite the differences in forecasts, the three institutions are highly consistent in their assessment of a slowdown in global economic growth, primarily due to factors such as trade tensions, sluggish investment, and limited fiscal space.
Growth Outlook for Major Economies
In developed economies, the US economy is projected to grow by 2.0% in 2026, below its potential growth rate; the Eurozone is projected to grow by 1.3%, and the UK by approximately 1.2%; Japan's growth is projected at 0.9%, mainly dragged down by weak external demand. Among emerging markets, South Asia is projected to experience the strongest growth, reaching 5.6% in 2026, with the Reserve Bank of India raising its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025-2026 to 7.4%. East Asia is expected to grow by 4.4%, with ASEAN as a whole growing at approximately 4.4%, but significant internal differences exist: Vietnam's growth is projected at 6.4%, while Thailand's is only 1.6%. Latin America is projected to grow by 2.3%, and Africa by 4.0%.
Global Economic Risks and Challenges
The global economy faces multiple risks:
- Continued increase in trade policy uncertainty, with the lagged effects of US tariffs gradually emerging, and global trade growth expected to fall to 2.2% in 2026;
- Weak investment, with global investment remaining sluggish, and geopolitical risks and fiscal tensions constraining investment activity;
- Continued decline in inflation, but high prices continue to erode real income, particularly in the US where inflation is above target;
- Escalating geopolitical tensions, with trade, technology, and investment flows increasingly influenced by policy institutions and geopolitical landscapes, leading to a reshaping of supply chains and cost structures.
Governance Concerns Emerge Amid Technological Revolution
In 2025, global technology companies and investors poured massive amounts of money into the AI (Artificial Intelligence) industry. According to Gartner, a technology industry research firm, AI-related spending is projected to reach approximately $1.5 trillion in 2025 and could potentially reach $2 trillion in 2026. In 2025, Nvidia, a major AI chip manufacturer, saw its market capitalization briefly surpass the $5 trillion mark, while Microsoft, which invested heavily in data centers and OpenAI, surpassed $4 trillion in market capitalization.
The Global Digital Currency Race Enters its First Year
By 2025, cross-border remittances via stablecoins will exceed $5 trillion, partially replacing the functions of traditional correspondent banks. Digital currencies have officially moved from "fringe experiments" to the realm of "financial infrastructure." Major economies such as the United States, the European Union, and Singapore have enacted comprehensive stablecoin regulatory laws, requiring issuers to hold sufficient reserves and undergo regular audits, clearing obstacles for large-scale institutional entry. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and others have launched compliant stablecoins for cross-border settlements and securities trading; Apple, Google, and others have integrated stablecoin payments through digital wallets; Visa and SWIFT have integrated stablecoin real-time settlements into their cross-border networks, reducing costs by over 70%.
With more countries establishing clear regulatory frameworks and the deep involvement of traditional financial institutions, crypto assets are further shedding their "geek" image and becoming a standard component of institutional asset allocation. Against the backdrop of Trump's tariff war, some analysts believe that central bank digital currencies and regional payment systems are expected to mitigate the impact of sanctions and tariffs under the dollar-dominated system to some extent. Digital currencies have become one of the hot topics in global financial policy discussions in 2025, with monetary sovereignty, financial stability, and privacy being key issues.
