World Events That Could Impact the Year Ahead
Geopolitical conflicts linger and spill over, yet efforts to promote peace never cease; unilateral bullying is on the rise, and calls for genuine multilateralism and the upholding of international fairness and justice are growing louder; the world economy faces uncertainty, but new technologies such as artificial intelligence are expected to become new growth drivers…Looking ahead to 2025, the world is at a crossroads of frequent regional conflicts and an accelerated reorganization of international power. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East, and the localized frictions in South and Southeast Asia are overlapping, transforming geopolitical risks from isolated crises into a structural norm. Regional conflicts are becoming a crucial lever for shifting the global power structure. At the beginning of 2026, the US military's surprise attack on Venezuela, forcibly taking President Maduro and his wife into custody, tore away the veneer of "civilization" and revealed the naked "law of the jungle."
The “Refeudalization” of the International Order
Humanity faces a crisis of modern disintegration.
The global power structure in 2025 will be complex and fragmented, exhibiting a clear trend of “refeudalization.” On the one hand, traditional hegemony is declining, and the United States’ role as “world policeman” is no longer commensurate with its name, making it difficult to maintain its hegemonic system on its own. This weakens its control over the traditional alliance system, and the “liberal international order” based on the US alliance system continues to disintegrate. Meanwhile, Trump’s withdrawal from international agreements has further exacerbated the deterioration of the international order based on the UN system. On the other hand, the deterioration of the international order has led to a global phenomenon of “refeudalization,” resulting in a situation of “rising powers vying for dominance.” When collective security mechanisms fail, global economic rules are reshaped by security logic, leading to the accelerated formation of regional economic blocs. This year, Europe has continuously strengthened its independent defense capabilities under the framework of "strategic autonomy"; India, Turkey, and other countries have demonstrated a stronger willingness to lead in regional affairs; and the "Global South" countries have formed collective bargaining power on issues such as climate finance and debt relief in multilateral forums. The international system is evolving from a US-led "unipolar era" towards a "re-feudalized" state characterized by multiple power centers and increasingly fragmented rules.
This "re-feudalization" is not a simple return to multipolarity, but rather a result of insufficient international public goods supply and the failure of common rules, leading to a decline in order and a return to an era of "survival of the fittest" and the "law of the jungle."
The Post-Russia-Ukraine War Era
The international order based on the concept of sovereign states is being challenged.
Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the conflict remains in a stalemate, with all parties suffering severe losses and sacrifices in terms of personnel and resources. However, these losses and sacrifices did not lead to the restoration of the Westphalian system; instead, they made the cracks in "sovereign equality" even more pronounced. By 2025, the focus of the Russia-Ukraine war has shifted from simple battlefield competition to a complex game dominated by "deals" between powerful nations, leading to changes in the core demands of each party: the United States is eager to demonstrate diplomatic achievements in "ending the war," attempting to reach a "grand deal" between itself and Russia; Russia uses sustained battlefield pressure as a bargaining chip, with its core objective being to force Ukraine to recognize its territorial status and prevent NATO expansion eastward; Ukraine faces immense military pressure and is forced to navigate diplomatic pressure from allies while balancing its own "red lines"; Europe, deeply anxious about being marginalized by the United States and fearing the spillover of security costs in the deal, is attempting to influence the process through collective voices and seeking support from other major powers.
Even more worrying is the manner in which the Russo-Ukrainian war ends. If it ultimately results in Russia's occupation of Ukrainian territory or Ukraine being forced to cede land, it would represent the collapse of the principle of sovereign statehood. The formation of a new world order would once again begin with the great powers dividing the world—a return to the era of the early modern world order, with various forms of neo-colonialism and imperialism arriving as expected. This would be the beginning of a nightmare for small countries. For China, as the world's second-largest economy, with the expansionist cultures of the United States and Russia remaining unchanged, we will inevitably become the most important variable in the future world order. Maintaining a clear mind and a firm stance will be particularly crucial in the next phase of change.
