What’s Changing Across the World Right Now
The world is currently at a crossroads of profound transformations, intertwined and mutually reinforcing, reshaping the underlying logic of global politics, economics, technology, and society. The global economy is currently exhibiting a complex situation characterized by both "growth resilience" and "vulnerability risks." Recently, several authoritative international institutions released reports predicting the global economic trend in 2026. These institutions generally believe that global economic growth will slow in 2026, with continued uncertainty and protectionist measures implemented by some countries dragging down global economic growth. Furthermore, fiscal vulnerabilities in some countries and potential financial market risks also threaten market stability. However, some institutions predict that the global economy may continue to remain stable in 2026.
World Bank: Global Economic Growth to Remain Broadly Stable Over the Next Two Years
The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report projects that global growth will remain broadly stable over the next two years, falling to 2.6% in 2026 and rebounding to 2.7% in 2027.
However, the World Bank states that even if current forecasts are accurate, the 2020s will still be the weakest decade for global growth since the 1960s.
The report shows that in 2025, a surge in trade prior to policy changes and rapid adjustments in global supply chains supported economic growth. However, these boosting effects are expected to fade in 2026 as trade and domestic demand weaken. Nevertheless, the report believes that easing global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in several large economies should help buffer the economic downturn. Global inflation is projected to decline slightly to 2.6% in 2026 due to a weak labor market and falling energy prices. Economic growth is expected to rebound in 2027 as trade flows gradually adjust and policy uncertainty diminishes.
The World Bank forecasts that in 2026, growth in developing economies will slow to 4% from 4.2% in 2025, but is expected to rebound slightly to 4.1% in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilize, financial conditions improve, and investment liquidity strengthens. Low-income countries are projected to grow faster, supported by solid domestic demand, a recovering export economy, and easing inflation, with an average growth rate of 5.6% in 2026-2027.
However, this will still be insufficient to narrow the income gap between developing and developed economies. Per capita income growth in developing economies is projected at 3% in 2026, about 1 percentage point lower than the average level from 2000 to 2019. At this rate, per capita income in developing economies will only reach 12% of that in developed economies.
UN: The impact of trade tensions will be more pronounced in 2026
The UN's recently released "World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026" report predicts that the global economy will grow by 2.7% in 2026, slightly lower than the projected growth rate of 2.8% in 2025.
The report argues that in 2025, despite significant tariff increases by the United States, the global economy demonstrated unexpected resilience and maintained growth momentum, supported by robust consumer spending and declining inflation. However, deep-seated vulnerabilities remain. Persistent sluggish investment and limited fiscal space are dragging down economic activity and increasing the risk of a prolonged period of low global growth.
The report notes that while initial easing of trade tensions has helped mitigate the impact on international trade, the effects of higher tariffs coupled with increased macroeconomic uncertainty are expected to become more pronounced in 2026. The report projects that global trade growth will fall to 2.2% in 2026, down from 3.8% in 2025.
The report forecasts that the US economy will grow at around 2.0% in 2026, hampered by a weakening labor market. EU economic growth will slow to 1.3% in 2026 due to increased US tariffs and continued geopolitical uncertainty putting pressure on exports. Japan's economic growth is projected to be around 0.9% in 2026 due to a continued weakening external environment.
Furthermore, the report forecasts that East Asia will grow by 4.4% in 2026, South Asia by 5.6%, Africa by 4.0%, Latin America and the Caribbean by 2.3%, and the Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia by 2.1%. The report calls on countries to strengthen global coordination and collective action amid heightened geopolitical tensions to address trade restructuring, price pressures, and climate shocks, rebuild trust, enhance predictability, and reaffirm commitment to an open, rules-based multilateral trading system.
World Economic Forum: Global Cooperation is Transforming
The World Economic Forum's recently released "Global Cooperation Barometer 2026" report analyzes five pillars of global cooperation: trade and capital, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and well-being, and peace and security. It indicates that while the overall level of global cooperation remains stable, the forms of cooperation are changing.
The report points out that global cooperation is undergoing a transformation. Traditional multilateral cooperation relying on mechanisms such as the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, and the World Health Organization is significantly weakening, while new forms of multilateral cooperation—smaller-scale, flexible, and interest-driven—are on the rise. Cooperation is more sustainable when it brings economic, security, or technological benefits; this is particularly evident in areas such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, clean energy, and digital trade. The report also points out that while traditional multilateral cooperation remains under pressure, it has not failed. Despite overcoming numerous difficulties, important agreements such as the WHO Pandemic Complaints Agreement, the UN Convention against Cybercrime, and the UN High Seas Treaty have been reached, demonstrating the continued vitality of global cooperation within multilateral frameworks.
The report emphasizes that the key issue facing world leaders today is not "whether to cooperate," but "how to cooperate." Past unified cooperation models are no longer adequate for a rapidly changing world.
The report argues that global cooperation should be reshaped around the following capabilities: First, rebuild the foundation for cooperation through "constructive dialogue." Parties should engage in constructive discussions, using dialogue as a confidence-building mechanism to identify common interests, rather than a tool to exacerbate differences. Second, match different forms of cooperation to different issues, simultaneously conducting cooperation within global, regional, and pragmatic multilateral frameworks. Finally, build new organizational capabilities to enhance the resilience of cooperation, especially in response to challenges such as geopolitical instability, supply chain restructuring, and intensified technological competition. The public and private sectors need to develop new collaborative capabilities to ensure rapid multilateral action.
World Economic Forum: Geoeconomic Confrontation is the Top Risk in 2026
The World Economic Forum's recently released "Global Risks Report 2026" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") shows that geoeconomic confrontation is the top risk in 2026, followed by armed conflict between states, extreme weather, social polarization, and misinformation and disinformation.
The Report analyzes global risks from three time dimensions: present (2026), short to medium term (next two years), and long term (next decade). In the near term, armed conflict, the weaponization of economic tools, and social division are creating a combined impact. As these current risks escalate, long-term challenges, from accelerated technological development to continued environmental degradation, are also generating ripple effects.
"Geoeconomic confrontation" ranks first in the near-term risk rankings, with 18% of respondents believing it is most likely to trigger a global crisis in 2026. Meanwhile, in the risk rankings for the next two years, "geoeconomic confrontation" has also become the most severe risk, rising eight places year-on-year. "Armed conflict between states" ranked second in the 2026 risk rankings, but has fallen to fifth in the next two-year risk rankings. Against a global backdrop of intensified competition and protracted conflict, confrontation is simultaneously threatening the security of global supply chains and macroeconomic stability, and will also weaken the international cooperation needed to withstand economic shocks. Looking ahead to the geopolitical outlook, 68% of respondents predict a "multipolar or fragmented landscape" over the next decade, a 4 percentage point increase from last year.
In the risk outlook for the next two years, economic risks have collectively risen the fastest. "Economic recession" and "inflation" have both risen eight places, ranking 11th and 21st respectively, while "asset bubble burst" has risen seven places to 18th. Growing debt problems and potential asset bubbles, coupled with geoeconomic conflicts, could trigger a new round of instability.
Regarding long-term risks (10 years), extreme climate change remains the biggest concern, with extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes in the Earth system ranking in the top three.
